Steadfast Companies attended the National Multifamily Housing Council Annual Meeting from January 26–28, 2026, held at the ARIA Resort & Casino in Las Vegas, Nevada.
NMHC’s Annual Meeting is one of the multifamily industry’s longest-standing gatherings, bringing together owners, operators, capital providers, and industry executives to hear data-driven perspectives and share observations on market fundamentals, investment activity, and emerging trends.
We have participated in this conference for more than 20 years. It consistently reveals where consensus is forming, where assumptions are being tested, and where real transaction activity is taking place.
Below are five key takeaways from this year’s event, as shared by our Chief Investment Officer, Bill Stoll.
1. What was the overall sentiment at NMHC 2026?
The phrase “cautiously optimistic” came up repeatedly in conversations. There was a general sense that the market has moved past the most difficult part of the market reset, but there is still little confidence in a sharp rebound.
Conversations felt grounded, realistic, and measured rather than enthusiastic.
Several attendees described conditions as “more of the same,” reflecting acceptance rather than disappointment and a willingness to work through the current realities of the market.
2. What changed in how sellers are thinking about the market as compared to last year?
More deals are coming to market because sellers are adjusting their expectations.
Many no longer believe that meaningful relief is coming from interest rates this year. Even if the Federal Reserve cuts, there is broad consensus that the 10-year Treasury is unlikely to move much. As a result, sellers are choosing to transact rather than wait for pricing conditions that may not materially improve.
It seems there is little appetite to sell simply because capital is available, only because holding periods and loan timelines now matter more than forecasts. In other words, owners are not selling just because financing is available. They are selling because loan maturities, extensions, and holding period constraints are now driving decisions more than expectations for future market improvement.
In addition, it seems many sponsors are facing pressure from their investors. Most sponsors entered deals with 3–5 year hold period expectations, and those timelines have now arrived.
Combined with loan maturities and extension constraints, these factors are driving some investment decisions.
3. How did transaction activity and liquidity look across the market?
Liquidity remains selective.
While buyer interest continues across asset types, a meaningful portion of listed properties are still not trading. One of the more telling observations shared at the conference came from Berkadia, which noted that in some markets fewer than half of marketed multifamily listings are closing, suggesting the bid–ask gap has not yet been met, indicating that sellers and buyers have not yet aligned on pricing.
The broader takeaway reinforced at NMHC was that capital has not disappeared, but it is only clearing when pricing works at today’s income and interest rates. Debt availability alone is not enough to move assets. Where pricing aligns with current fundamentals, transactions are occurring. Where it does not, listings are remaining on the market.
4. What is happening on the fundamentals side of the market?
Fundamentals are stable, but growth remains muted. The most encouraging theme continues to be on the supply side. New apartment deliveries are declining at one of the fastest rates of this cycle. Over time, that should support occupancy and rent growth as the market works through existing inventory. Even the more optimistic operators acknowledged that concessions and competitive leasing conditions will not reverse quickly or uniformly.
Industry data shared at the conference also points to a gradual normalization in fundamentals as the recent supply wave moves through the system. National occupancy is expected to trend back toward pre-pandemic levels as deliveries taper and net absorption stabilizes. Rent growth is forecast to remain modest, supported in part by continued household income growth, reinforcing the view that recovery is likely to be steady rather than abrupt.
5. What is the main takeaway for apartment investors?
The market has not turned exuberant, but it has become more honest.
Pricing, underwriting, and expectations are better aligned with reality. Capital is available, but disciplined. Deals are getting done when fundamentals, debt, and pricing align. Where they do not, assets are simply not trading. The next phase of the cycle is more likely to improve gradually through fewer new deliveries entering the market, rather than through rapid rent growth or a sharp increase in deal volume. Importantly, this does not signal a lack of opportunity. It suggests that returns are more likely to be driven by entry price, income durability, and market selection than by broad market appreciation. For investors, this environment continues to reward selectivity, patience, and a focus on current cash flow rather than future assumptions.
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For a deeper look at where the apartment market stands today, read our latest article, Steadfast’s Predictions for 2026 for Apartment Investors.
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Disclaimer: The information provided herein is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Private real estate investments involve significant risks, including loss of principal, and are intended for accredited investors who understand and can bear those risks. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Forward-looking statements are based on current assumptions and expectations; actual results may differ materially. Investors should conduct their own due diligence and consult with their financial, legal, and tax advisors before making any investment decision.
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